Increased Need for Probabilistic System Operation and Planning in the 21 Century

The Bulk Power System (BPS) is undergoing significant change that is unprecedented for both its transformational nature and rapid pace. Such extraordinary change presents new challenges and opportunities for reliability. Dramatic advances in technology, customer preferences, public policy, and market forces are altering the generation resource mix and challenging the conventional understanding of baseload power, traditionally provided by large generating units with low maintenance and forced outage rates. Careful operation, planning, and support become crucial to remain the BPS reliable and resilient. Topics covered by this panel will include efforts both newly developed and under development towards consistent ways of making decisions under uncertainty to support grid development, operation management, and planning. Panelists will cover new probabilistic methods and tools in the 21-century due increased uncertainties both on the demand and on the supply side.