GM 23 Tutorial: TUT 4 - Probabilistic Energy Forecasting: Methodologies, Implementations, and Applications (slides)

The increasing integration of weather-dependent renewable energy and flexible loads introduces great complexity and uncertainty to power systems. Modern power systems rely on forecasts of many variables from minutes to weeks ahead to maintain reliable and economic operation. Probabilistic forecasts empower decision-makers with information about forecast uncertainty and play an important role in a growing number of power systems around the world. This tutorial introduces probabilistic forecasting, describes leading methods for load, price, wind, and solar forecasting, and explains how these forecasts are used in power systems. It is delivered by leading researchers who have developed these methods and supported their adoption energy industry in the US, Europe, and beyond.